A Bayesian network approach for predicting seismic liquefaction based on interpretive structural modeling     

Ji-Lei Hu  Xiao-Wei Tang 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2015,9(3):200-217

The Bayesian network (BN) is a type of graphical network based on probabilistic inference that has been gradually applied to assessment of seismic liquefaction potential. However, how to construct a robust BN remains underexplored in this field. This paper aims to present an efficient hybrid approach combining domain knowledge and data to construct a BN that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and the quantification of uncertainties within a network model to assess seismic liquefaction. Initially, only using given domain knowledge, a naive network model can be constructed using interpretive structural modeling. Thereafter, some effective information about the naive model is provided to construct a robust model using structural learning of BN from historic data. Finally, the returning predictive results and the predictive results are compared to other methods including non-probabilistic and probabilistic models for seismic liquefaction using the metrics of the overall accuracy, the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic, prediction, recall and F₁ score. The methodology proposed in this paper achieved better performance, and we discussed the power and value of the proposed approach at the end of this paper, which suggest that BN is a good alternative tool for seismic liquefaction prediction.  相似文献   

ISO2394:2015 Annex D (Reliability of Geotechnical Structures)     

K.K. Phoon  J.V. Retief 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2015,9(3):125-127

ISO2394:2015 contains a new informative Annex D on “Reliability of Geotechnical Structures”. The emphasis in Annex D is to identify and characterize critical elements of the geotechnical reliability-based design process, while respecting the diversity of geotechnical engineering practice. This paper highlights the main features of Annex D and gaps for future work.  相似文献   

“This is a Montreal Issue”: Negotiating responsibility in global production and investment networks     

Noah Quastel 《Geoforum》2011,42(4):451-461

While geographers have increasingly focused on how global commodity and production networks create new ‘geographies of responsibility’ there has been little empirical work considering how responsibility is worked into management systems and social activism in such networks. Drawing on literature from global production networks, geographies of responsibility and other literatures, this paper explores the dynamic and contested ways in which concepts of responsibility can play a role in network regulation. Both foreign direct investment and commodity networks (here referred to as ‘global production and investment networks’) are subject to complex negotiations and compromises involving corporate social responsibility and sustainability initiatives as well as shareholder activist, human rights, labor, and environmental activism. This is illustrated by reference to conflicts in Canada over Alcan, Inc.’s investments from 1993 to 2007 in the Utkal Alumina Project in Orissa, India. The project involved significant socio-environmental conflict. In Canada, Alcan’s investment was met by civil society campaigns that tested the company’s commitments to sustainability and corporate social responsibility. The case study suggests revising theories of geographies of responsibility. While foreign direct investment can create new relationships between distant others, these are fluid and contingent and not necessarily desirable. Rather than see networks as a source of responsibility we should work to ensure that the relationships that networks foster be structured to ensure our deeper values are respected.  相似文献   

Associated terrestrial and marine fossils in the late-glacial Presumpscot Formation, southern Maine, USA, and the marine reservoir effect on radiocarbon ages   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Woodrow B. Thompson  Carol B. Griggs  Norton G. Miller  Robert E. Nelson  Thomas K. Weddle  Taylor M. Kilian   《Quaternary Research》2011,75(3):552-565

Excavations in the late-glacial Presumpscot Formation at Portland, Maine, uncovered tree remains and other terrestrial organics associated with marine invertebrate shells in a landslide deposit. Buds of Populus balsamifera (balsam poplar) occurred with twigs of Picea glauca (white spruce) in the Presumpscot clay. Tree rings in Picea logs indicate that the trees all died during winter dormancy in the same year. Ring widths show patterns of variation indicating responses to environmental changes. Fossil mosses and insects represent a variety of species and wet to dry microsites. The late-glacial environment at the site was similar to that of today's Maine coast. Radiocarbon ages of 14 tree samples are 11,907 ± 31 to 11,650 ± 50 ¹⁴C yr BP. Wiggle matching of dated tree-ring segments to radiocarbon calibration data sets dates the landslide occurrence at ca. 13,520 + 95/−20 cal yr BP. Ages of shells juxtaposed with the logs are 12,850 ± 65 ¹⁴C yr BP (Mytilus edulis) and 12,800 ± 55 ¹⁴C yr BP (Balanus sp.), indicating a marine reservoir age of about 1000 yr. Using this value to correct previously published radiocarbon ages reduces the discrepancy between the Maine deglaciation chronology and the varve-based chronology elsewhere in New England.  相似文献   

最近11万年来东亚季风轨道与千年尺度气候变率在南京下蜀黄土中的记录     

张茂恒  孟景闻  夏应菲  赖忠平  汪永进 《地层学杂志》2011,(3):321-327

对南京李家岗下蜀黄土剖面上部的近20 m地层进行野外观察和室内研究,划分出5层黄土和5层古土壤,按5 cm间距采集了Rb/Sr、色度、磁化率和粒度样品,并在剖面和可追索的相邻剖面上采集了13个光释光测年样品。分析结果显示,Rb/Sr、色度和磁化率等夏季风代用指标曲线所表现的4次岁差变率振荡具有高度的一致性,依据气候地层...  相似文献   

Integrated biostratigraphy and carbon isotope stratigraphy of the Lower Cretaceous (Barremian to Albian) Adriatic-Dinaridic carbonate platform deposits in Istria, Croatia     

Blanka Cvetko Tešovi?  Bosiljka Glumac 《Cretaceous Research》2011,32(3):301-324

The Adriatic-Dinaridic carbonate platform (ADCP) was one of the largest and relatively well preserved Mesozoic platforms in the Mediterranean region (central Tethys). The peninsula Istria, in the northwestern part of the ADCP, is built up predominantly of shallow-water carbonates of the Middle Jurassic (Dogger) to Eocene age and, to a lesser extent, of Paleogene clastic deposits (flysch and calcareous breccia). This study focuses on a Lower Cretaceous (Barremian to Albian) succession of strata at five localities in western Istria. Stratigraphic determinations are based on identification of nine microfossil assemblages (benthic foraminifera and calcareous algae Dasycladales) and on using their taxa as index fossils. The age of strata with these microfossil assemblages, however, is questionable. Most of the age uncertainties are associated with a regional emersion, which occurred on the ADCP during the Aptian or close to the Aptian-Albian transition. It is unclear what portions of the Upper Aptian and/or Lower Albian are missing along this unconformity. A stable isotope study was conducted on homogenous micritic matrix samples in an attempt to resolve some of these uncertainties. Variations in carbon isotope compositions proved useful for stratigraphic correlation between the examined successions of strata, for improving their age determination, and for relating them to other coeval successions that span an important time interval of major oceanographic changes and carbon-cycle perturbations associated with the Early Aptian oceanic anoxic event (OAE 1a).  相似文献   

赣南崇义淘锡坑钨矿床氢、氧、硫同位素地球化学研究   总被引：11，自引：2，他引：9  

宋生琼  胡瑞忠  毕献武  魏文凤  石少华 《矿床地质》2011,30(1):1-10

赣南崇义县淘锡坑钨矿位于南岭东西向构造带东段与武夷山NE-NNE向构造带南段的复合部位,属于以石英脉型黑钨矿为主的钨多金属矿床.文章通过氧、氧、硫同位素地球化学特征的研究,探讨了淘锡坑钨矿成矿流体的来源及演化.研究结果显示:δD值介于-77‰～-45‰之间;石英矿物的δ18O值介于+7.3‰～+12.2‰之间,计算给出...  相似文献   

Variation of mineral composition,fabric and oxygen fugacity from massive to foliated eclogites during exhumation of subducted ocean crust in the North Qilian suture zone,NW China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Y. CAO  S. G. SONG  Y. L. NIU  H. JUNG  Z. M. JIN 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2011,29(7):699-720

Eclogites from the North Qilian suture zone are high‐pressure low‐temperature metamorphic rocks of ocean crust protolith, and occur in both massive and foliated varieties as individual blocks of tens to hundreds of metres in size. The massive type is weakly deformed and shows granoblastic texture characterized by a coarse‐grained peak mineral assemblage of Grt¹ + Omp¹ + Ph + Rt ± Lws (or retrograde Cz). In contrast, the foliated type is strongly deformed and shows a fine‐grained retrograde mineral assemblage of Grt² + Omp² + Cz + Gln + Ph. Both total FeO and aegirine contents in omphacite, as well as X_Fe[=Fe³⁺/(Fe³⁺ + Al^VI)] in clinozoisite/epidote, increase significantly from massive to foliated eclogites. Lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of omphacite, determined by electron back‐scatter diffraction analysis, is characterized by weak and strong SL‐type fabrics for massive and foliated eclogites, respectively. Clinozoisite/epidote also developed SL‐type fabric, but different from the LPOs of omphacite in <010> and <001> axes, owing to their opposite crystallographic long and short axis definitions. The transition of deformation mechanism from dislocation creep to diffusive mass transfer (DMT) creep in omphacite and the concomitant retrograde metamorphism both are efficiently facilitated when the original coarse‐grained Omp¹ + Grt¹ + Lws assemblage is dynamically recrystallized and retrogressed into the fine‐grained Fe³⁺‐rich assemblage of Omp² + Grt² + Cz + Gln. The DMT process with concomitant anisotropic growth assisted by fluids is considered to be an important deformation mechanism for most minerals in the foliated eclogite. P–T estimates yielded 2.3–2.6 GPa and 485?510 °C for the massive eclogite and 1.8–2.2 GPa and 450?480 °C for the foliated eclogite. The significant increase in total Fe and Fe³⁺ contents in omphacite and clinozoisite/epidote from massive to foliated eclogite suggests changes in mineral compositions accompanied by an increase in oxygen fugacity during ductile deformation associated with exhumation. The LPO transition of omphacite, clinozoisite and rutile from weak SL‐type in massive eclogites to strong SL‐type in foliated eclogites is interpreted to represent the increment of shear strain during exhumation along the ‘subduction channel’.  相似文献   

胶东焦家特大型金矿床深、浅部矿体特征对比   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

宋明春  宋英昕  崔书学  姜洪利  袁文花  王化江 《矿床地质》2011,30(5):923-932

焦家特大型金矿床由以往提交的焦家金矿床、马塘金矿床、寺庄金矿床和近年来发现的寺庄深部金矿床、马塘深部金矿床、焦家深部金矿床组成,金资源储量大于600吨.该矿床由4个矿体群组成,深部矿体有306个.深部Ⅰ-1号、Ⅱ-1号和Ⅰ-12号主矿体相互平行且在水平投影图上部分叠合,深部Ⅰ-12号、Ⅰ号主矿体与浅部Ⅰ号、1号主矿体相...  相似文献   

西藏谢通门县邦弄含铁电英岩脉的地质特征及成因分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

夏祥标  郑来林  李军敏  李再会 《矿床地质》2011,30(4):742-748

文章介绍了西藏谢通门县邦弄地区含铁电英岩脉的地质特征.电英岩脉的延伸方向大致与区内的断层平行,围岩为中粒斑状角闪黑云二长花岗岩.电英岩脉中见有不同程度的铁矿化,共有23条矿化较好的含铁电英岩脉.含铁电英岩脉中矿石矿物为赤铁矿(镜铁矿),脉石矿物为石英、电气石及少量的白云母和长石.矿石具叶片状、鳞片状结构,块状构造,矿石...  相似文献